The Impacts of Technology, Trade and Outsourcing on Employment and Labor Composition

Empirical studies of skill-biased technological change are typically based on a simple production or cost function framework and limited information on technology and labor composition. In contrast, we simultaneously assess the impacts of trade, technology, and outsourcing on shifts in labor demand using a dynamic cost function framework and comprehensive measures of workforce composition and investment in technology. Our findings indicate that technological change has had the largest impact on changes in labor composition. However, the indirect impact of trade on shifts in employment augments its direct impact because trade stimulates computerization, which further exacerbates skill-biased technological change.     

Background Risk, Demand for Insurance, and Choquet Expected Utility Preferences

This article deals with demand for insurance with a background risk in a nonprobabilized uncertainty framework, where preferences are represented by a nonadditive model of decision making. The Choquet expected utility model that we use generalizes expected utility and allows for a separation of the attitude towards uncertainty and the attitude towards wealth. When the insurable and the background risk are comonotone, the impact of the background risk on the demand for insurance is related to the attitude towards wealth. In contrast, when the two risks are anticomonotone, the attitude towards uncertainty is determinant. In this case, some of the resulting behaviors cannot be explained by the standard expected utility model.     

The effects of learning and signaling on money demand: With an application to heterodox inflation stabilization programs

This paper develops a nonlinear vector autoregression of inflation and money growth subject to changes in regime. The regimes are fully characterized by the mean and variance of inflation and are conjectured to be the result of alternative government policies. Agents are unable to observe directly whether government actions are indeed consistent with the inflation rate targeted as part of a stabilization program. However, as part of their money demand decision, agents construct probability inferences regarding the regime. Government announcements are assumed to provide agents with additional, possibly truthful information regarding the regime.  This specification is estimated using data from the Israeli and Argentine high-inflation periods. Results indicate that the successful stabilization program implemented in Israel in July 1985 was more credible than either the earlier Israeli attempt in November 1984 or the Argentine programs. Government's signaling might simplify the agents' inference problem and increase the speed of their learning but, under certain conditions, it might also increase inflation volatility. Welfare gains from a temporary increase in real balances might be high enough to induce agents to raise their money demand in the short-term even if they are uncertain about the nature of government policy and the eventual outcome of the stabilization attempt. Statistically, the model restrictions cannot be rejected at the 1% significance level. First version received: August 1998/Final version received: January 1999     

Estimating Recreation Preferences Using Hedonic Travel Cost and Random Utility Models

Over the last decade, several authors have questioned thevalidity of the hedonic travel cost model, arguing instead that the random utility model is a superior method forvaluing recreational site attributes. This paper demonstrates that the two methods emanate from a similar utilitytheoretic framework; yet in practice these methods differ in the assumptions made in their application.Constraining the underlying utility functions to be consistent, both models are applied to the valuation ofrecreational site attributes in the Southeastern United States. The way in which each method estimates preferencesfor site attributes is shown to depend critically on the method and the functional form of theunderlying utility function.     

Schumpeterian Entrepreneurs Meet Engel's Law: The Impact of Inequality on Innovation-Driven Growth

This article analyzes the impactof inequality on growth when consumers have hierarchic preferencesand technical progress is driven by innovations. With hierarchicpreferences, the poor consume predominantly basic goods, whereasthe rich consume also luxury goods. Inequality has an impacton growth because it affects the level and the dynamics of aninnovator's demand. It is shown that redistribution from veryrich to very poor consumers can be beneficial for growth. Ingeneral, the growth effect depends on the nature of redistribution.Due to a demand externality from R&D activities, multipleequilibria are possible.     

The Effect of Pricing on Demand and Revenue in Federal Reserve ACH Payment Processing

Because the automated clearinghouse (ACH) has been found to have lower social costs than paper checks, the Federal Reserve has been promoting more widespread use of ACH by lowering ACH processing fees. In this paper, we have obtained the first numerical estimates of ACH demand elasticities, a measure of the responsiveness of ACH demand to price changes. Various methods are employed to estimate the demand elasticities to determine how robust the estimates are. During the period 1985–1996, the Federal Reserve lowered the per-item price of interregional ACH, while the per-item price of intraregional ACH stayed constant. We take advantage of this unique pattern of historical price changes implemented by the Federal Reserve to estimate the effect of price changes on demand for ACH.We find that the volume of ACH processed by the Federal Reserve responds to changes in per-item fees, but the increase in volume that results from a price decline is very small and not statistically significantly different from 0, except in the case of debit origination. The results suggest that the Federal Reserve cannot expect to generate substantial additional volume by lowering its prices further. However, commercial banks may be able to increase the volume demanded by lowering their own ACH fees. We also examine how volume growth initiated by a price cut affects unit costs. Given the relatively large-scale economies found for ACH, volume growth leads to lower unit costs. However, to outweigh the revenues lost as a result of a price decline, ACH volume would have to increase by an amount much greater than our estimates indicate is likely. Consequently, a decline in per-item ACH fees likely would lead to lower net revenues.     

Economic Capacity Utilization and its Determinants: Theory and Evidence

This paper develops and estimates a model of economic capacity utilization and its determinants by allowing for the firm's full optimization behavior that considers endogenous output choice. The model consists of deriving the short-run output supply function and the capital demand function which generate optimal and capacity output. Optimal capacity utilization is determined as the ratio of optimal to capacity output and its determinants are identified. Evidence from U.S. manufacturing shows that capital expansion not accompanied by market growth and higher materials and capital prices has contributed to lower capacity utilization. Energy price increases have exerted a stimulating impact on capacity utilization. Conventional capacity utilization measures are found to be biased and fail to capture the influences of changes in economic conditions facing firms.     

Tax and green transport plans: a survey of UK experience

The widespread adoption of Green Transport Plans (GTPs) by employers has become an important aim of the UK government transport policy as it tries to find ways of reducing transport demand. However, the tax treatment of employee benefits that form part of many GTPs has been identified by the government and others as a potential barrier to their adoption. Based on telephone interviews with employers and meetings with tax and transport experts, this paper confirms this perception. It also explains precisely how tax forms a barrier to GTP implementation, reviews the approaches taken to this problem in three other countries and makes outline proposals for reform and further research.     

我国乙烯的需要分析及预测

分析了1983～1997年我国乙烯的供求情况,预测了2002年和2005年我国乙烯的供求,并对比了世界一些国家和地区的GDP和乙烯产能。     

我国精对苯二甲酸的生产现状及发展趋势

近年来由于ＰＴＡ法逐步取代ＤＭＴ法生产ＰＥＴ,对ＰＴＡ需求增长加快;国外各大公司纷纷提出在中国的改扩建和增建计划。建议大力支持聚酯产品及其原料生产和技术国产化进程。